This Thursday an upper-level trough will enter the southwest and should bring some possibly severe thunderstorms to the mid-southwest. The 850mb GFS RH model shows a dry line the cutting down the middle of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Strong wind-shear will be located primarily on the south-central Oklahoma/Texas border. This field of wind shear will be located on the dry line giving making it a High Risk area. Super cells are possible as the wind shear is going to be between 30-40kt giving the updrafts extreme rotation. As for chasing, I would stay around the Central Oklahoma region to give these storms some time to mature. This line of storms should start engaging the mid-southwest area around Friday afternoon or early Saturday morning. Warm Gulf moisture is also going to be pumped into this system, so it should generate severe weather relatively fast.
Severe weather might also stretch into the weekend.
(I am an Amateur “Soon to be” Meteorologist) – So all professional advice should not be taken as strictly or seriously because I am still learning how to precisely predict severe weather. I will keep everyone updated often as this trough approaches closer to the event.
Comments on how good or bad I am on predicting would be nice. And any helpful tips or information I should know or corrections would be awesome!
Have a nice day!
- Scott Guinn
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